The political arena in Kenya is never short of strategy and surprise. The recent subtle pronouncements by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua hinting at a presidential run are not merely wishful ambition.
They form a well calculated move aimed at realigning his political relevance, safeguarding his freedom after being booted out of office, and influencing the 2027 election matrix in favor of his.i interest.
It is public knowledge that Gachagua is entangled in legal and ethical complications that may bar him from contesting any public office. His announcement therefore cannot be taken at face value. It is a move to force the conversation about his eligibility back to the national stage. The moment he is perceived as a presidential contender, any decision barring him from running morphs into a national issue. It is no longer just about corruption allegations or integrity questions. It becomes political suppression. This gives Gachagua the leverage he needs to negotiate his way back into public service, or at the very least, out of legal trouble.
President William Ruto may have little political need for Gachagua at the national level anymore, but he remains critical to Ruto’s 2027 strategy, just not in the way people think. By allowing Gachagua to position himself as a presidential aspirant and even run, Ruto stands to benefit in a more indirect and destructive way, by dividing the Mount Kenya vote.
Ruto knows that his main threat in the next general election lies not in Gachagua but in a united opposition bolstered by Mount Kenya support. If the opposition remains intact, especially with the emergence of credible alternative candidates from the central region, then Ruto’s chances of reelection diminish significantly.
However, if Gachagua runs and pulls even a fraction of the region’s votes, it scatters the numbers just enough to tip the balance in favor of Ruto Especially when backed by Odinga.
Gachagua may not necessarily win the presidency. He likely knows this. But by running, he positions himself as the voice of a disenfranchised Mount Kenya, a figure with unfinished business, a man sacrificed by the system. He turns into a regional martyr of sorts, increasing his political capital and relevance even in defeat.
This strategy works only if Gachagua still commands loyalty in the region, and therein lies the bait. Mount Kenya leaders eying national stature know that Gachagua is a vessel with diminishing fuel, but they also know he holds state secrets, political alliances, and perhaps more importantly, control of financial and administrative networks.
Every political hyena, whether in government or opposition, is watching closely for when he drops off the race, they benefit and he knows as much.
So if the opposition is smart, it must not just focus on who they will front as a candidate. It must prepare to counter any state sanctioned sabotage disguised as ambition. The moment they begin to treat Gachagua’s candidacy as legitimate without dissecting the intent behind it, they play into the game of statecraft.
The real concern is not whether Gachagua will run or not. The concern is how his name on the ballot serves a larger scheme, to fracture the opposition, neutralize Mount Kenya’s voting power, and render the 2027 contest a three way split that favors the incumbent.
Politics is a game of interest. In this game, Gachagua is not just seeking the presidency. He is seeking immunity, relevance, and redemption. The presidency is merely the cover story.
The real play is survival, and he is playing it like a man who understands that in politics, you do not need to win to win. You only need to cause enough confusion to be invited back to the table.
The opposition has been warned. The hyenas are circling. And the man with the meat knows exactly what he is doing.
By Billy Mijungu
