The State Project Question
If indeed Maraga was a state project, then the strategy is working at equilibrium level. His quiet but steady rise has the hallmarks of deliberate engineering. In politics, nothing just happens.
It is always designed, funded, or calculated. In this case, the equation seems to be balancing. It is a matter of when, not if, before it reaches optimum levels, the point at which both candidates fade into the background, consumed by a new force.
Kenya’s politics has never been short of state-sponsored projects. From Moi’s “project Uhuru” in 2002, to Kibaki’s balancing acts in 2007, to the controversial “handshake project” in 2018, the signs are often there.
The difference is always in how the supposed project is received. Maraga, though quiet and not naturally political, has managed to cut through public conversations in a way that unsettles Fred Matiang’i, who until recently was the most exciting name outside William Ruto’s orbit.
Matiang’i’s Reluctance
The reluctance and lack of aggressiveness in Matiang’i’s team, or even the candidate himself, is now fueling narratives that are shaping the race.
His political goodwill is intact, particularly in Mount Kenya, where many still see him as a firm, no-nonsense reformist who stood up to cartels in government. But goodwill is not a strategy.
In Mount Kenya, Matiang’i seems trapped by Gachagua, or at best intimidated by him. He has avoided staging visible shows of force in the mountain, yet this is a place where he could be as popular as Uhuru Kenyatta or even Ruto of 2022. Politics rewards courage, not caution.
In politics, the ground fears nothing. It only fears being ignored. By appearing hesitant, Matiang’i risks surrendering a fertile base to rivals who are more daring.
A Missed Momentum
Matiang’i’s Kisii homecoming and his attendance at the football match in Kisii Stadium was a lightning rod whose burning embers should never have died out. It was raw energy waiting to be shaped into a movement.
After Kisii, Migori would have been the natural stop, a platform to tease out numbers and open Luo Nyanza with solid rallies. That tour would have given him a presence beyond his Kisii base. But that moment fizzled out, for reasons no one has explained.
In politics, missed momentum is hard to recover. Once people sense hesitation, they quickly shift attention. The story becomes not about your vision, but about your silence. And silence in Kenyan politics is often read as weakness.
Silence of the Vocalists
The most vocal leaders who entrenched Matiang’i in the minds of Kenyans have gone quiet. Senator Onyonka, Jeremiah Kioni, and others who once carried his message are missing in action. Their silence may not necessarily be about the candidate but about the character of the candidacy.
Politicians love hot Chap Chap designs, the kind of fast-moving campaigns that generate constant energy and headlines. If they don’t find them, they create them. Matiang’i’s camp has failed to offer that adrenaline. Without visible rallies, fiery speeches, or dramatic takeovers, his candidacy looks more like an idea than a movement. And ideas without motion rarely survive in Kenya’s noisy political marketplace.
UPA’s Big Test
This is where the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) must prove its worth. For Matiang’i, UPA cannot remain a dormant shell waiting for the next election cycle. It must be tested, stretched, and baptized in the battlefield of real contests. The 24 byelections across the country present the perfect opportunity.
If UPA can field candidates, win at least 10 seats, and establish a presence in diverse regions, it will immediately change the conversation. It will no longer be “Matiang’i the former CS” but “Matiang’i the party leader.” Politics in Kenya is tribal, but it is also institutional. Without a functioning party, even the most charismatic politician becomes a wandering star.
The squabbling in Nyamira should not distract him. Parties always fight hardest where they are most popular. ODM has seen it in Kisumu, Jubilee saw it in Kiambu, and UDA is living through it in Rift Valley. That is the price of relevance. Matiang’i should welcome it as proof that UPA has a heartbeat.
The Incumbent’s Advantage
Meanwhile, William Ruto, the incumbent, is not preparing to be reelected because he is popular. He is preparing to be reelected because he appears cut above the rest, strolling like a boss simply because there is no real challenger. Politics is perception, and right now, Ruto looks untouchable.
The Kenyan electorate often behaves like passengers being herded into matatus. Whoever has the loudest makanga with the best persuasion skills wins the crowd. Ruto has perfected this art. His ability to mobilize turnout, even when people grumble about the economy, is unmatched. He understands that politics is not about convincing everyone, but about ensuring your own people show up.
That is his biggest strength. He has herdsmen who can get people to the polling station. He has built a culture where loyalty is rewarded, rebellion punished, and turnout guaranteed. Unless his opponents master turnout politics, they are fighting shadows.
Only Gachagua Knows the Opponent
All said and done, Ruto’s competitors seem not to understand their opponent. They treat him as a politician to debate with, not as an operator to outmaneuver. Only Gachagua seems to grasp the true measure of Ruto’s game. He works ten times harder, constantly projecting himself as indispensable, even when unpopular.
The lesson is simple. To unsettle Ruto, you must work ten times harder than him. You must flood the field with rallies, dominate headlines with bold messaging, and refuse to be silenced. Fear will never be sown in Ruto’s camp by speeches or tweets, but by relentless presence. That is what will finally send him to the drawing board.
Conclusion
Maraga may be cutting into Matiang’i’s space, but the real story is not about Maraga. It is about how Matiang’i is handling his moment. Goodwill is not enough. Silence is not strategy.
And hesitation is not leadership. If Matiang’i wants to rise, he must seize every opportunity, test UPA in the byelections, and show courage where it matters most.
Otherwise, as things stand, the incumbent will walk into reelection not because he has solved Kenya’s problems, but because he has mastered the art of herding the electorate into his matatu while his rivals argue at the bus stop.