For much of the Uhuru Kenyatta administration, the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) increasingly looked like a market in search of purpose.
Investment conversations were dominated by money markets, government bonds and the expansion of a debt-driven economy, while the equities market appeared to take a back seat.
That is beginning to change.
A shift in how public debt is procured, structured and managed is helping redirect attention towards the bourse.
We are witnessing renewed interest in the NSE, with several notable developments, including Family Bank, Kenya Pipeline Company, Quickmart and the cross-listing of Dangote Refinery.
This renewed interest is breathing life into the market. Stocks that have traded at depressed valuations are beginning to reach new heights, while several others remain significantly undervalued relative to the underlying assets and wealth they represent.
Even after the recent rally, there are still opportunities for investors who understand value beyond short-term market movements.
There are also emerging players injecting confidence into the market, even when their investments carry an unmistakable political dimension.
Ndindi Nyoro, for instance, is demonstrating an appetite for acquiring and investing in companies during an election year, despite the uncertainties that traditionally accompany such periods.
That is a good thing.
It signals a growing investment culture and a willingness to do business regardless of the political temperature.
Kenyans are increasingly learning to work, invest and build wealth amid high-stakes politics rather than suspend economic activity every time an election approaches.
Even British investment interest in the bourse through Mobilist, as we approach another election cycle, points to a country gradually coming of age. Kenya can no longer afford to postpone economic progress because of elections. Political competition must coexist with economic ambition.
The Dangote question
Considering the reported KSh 2 trillion investment proposition, there is an interesting valuation conversation to be had.
One could argue that the Kenyan valuation appears relatively expensive when compared with the Nigerian experience.
The Nigerian refinery had to contend with significant infrastructure challenges, including land constraints, port access and pipeline infrastructure. Kenya already has important strategic advantages in these areas. One would therefore expect these advantages to be reflected in a more competitive investment valuation.
Equally important is the proposed offtake arrangement involving approximately 450 million litres of fuel. The real test will be whether the resulting supply arrangements deliver prices below international market benchmarks and translate the investment into tangible value for Kenyan consumers and the wider economy.
Otherwise, the question of what ultimately makes the investment worthwhile becomes a much bigger conversation.
Nevertheless, beyond the valuation debate, Dangote has delivered something invaluable to the Kenyan capital markets: confidence.
The scale of the investment, the attention it has attracted and the willingness to engage the Kenyan market have created a level of optimism that is remarkable, particularly in an election year.
Think about it. We are attracting major investments, expanding our capital markets and discussing long-term economic opportunities even as political stakes rise.
Haven’t we grown?
Perhaps the biggest statement Kenya is making is that elections should no longer be an excuse for economic paralysis. The business of building a country must continue, irrespective of who is campaigning, who is competing or who eventually wins.