William Ruto is on a charm offensive like no other. He is going deep into political strongholds that once rejected him, shaking hands, smiling for the cameras and making promises. In Homa Bay they say Otedo Rech Asego which means he is frying fish in Asego.
Yet for all his effort, the numbers tell a stubborn story. Even with the open support of Raila Odinga, the President remains in a position that suggests the race is still very open.
If the Broad Based coalition holds firm, then the big question becomes who will be the strong column that could push Ruto over the edge. Kalonzo Musyoka is the most likely figure for this role.
The deal would be simple and tempting, serve as Deputy President for five years and secure a fighting chance for the presidency in 2032. This arrangement would give Kalonzo a historic opportunity to anchor his final run for State House.
However, this possibility depends on one important factor. If Fred Matiangi and Kalonzo fail to agree on the order of their 2027 ticket, then Kalonzo becomes the most effective pendulum in the race.
But politics has a way of ignoring logic when emotions and loyalties are involved. Raila Odinga remains the most lethal pendulum in Kenya today. If Raila were to swing to the opposition in 2027, the consequences for Ruto would be devastating.
It would not just be a matter of losing the election. The reality is that Ruto might not even emerge second. Raila’s endorsement, when deployed at the right moment, has the ability to tilt entire provinces and regions in ways no other politician can match.
Meanwhile, a group of younger political actors is quietly testing the waters. Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, Ndindi Nyoro, Anthony Kibagendi and Gathoni Wamuchomba and Natembeya have been in deep discussions.
They are not yet ready to mount a full scale presidential campaign, but they are certainly aware of their growing influence. These are individuals with ambition, political capital and national name recognition. Yet they also know that Kenya’s politics is expensive and unforgiving.
If they were to attempt a serious presidential run in 2027, they would need a pendulum who could deliver money, networks and national reach. The only person in that category today is former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Uhuru still commands influence in several critical regions, and unlike most political heavyweights, he has the resources to finance a well oiled campaign machine. For any youthful alliance dreaming of power, he would be the bridge between raw ambition and realistic victory.
As things stand, the state of the 2027 race is a puzzle with several moving pieces. Ruto is trying to consolidate the gains of incumbency, Raila remains the master kingmaker, Kalonzo holds the potential to tip the balance, and the younger generation is quietly positioning itself for the future.
In between these forces lies the pendulum, the figure whose decision will decide who sits in State House after the next election
In Kenyan politics, the pendulum is never just a supporter. It is a force that swings with the weight of numbers, history and timing. In 2027, that swing will determine not only the winner, but also the shape of politics for the next decade.
