On Friday, rumours will either be confirmed or dismissed if Fred Matiang’i officially decamps from the United Progressive Alliance headquarters he helped build to join Jubilee.
His move will not only shift his political base but also redraw lines within the opposition and government.
For Matiang’i, joining Jubilee signals the end of his association with Gachagua of DCP. It also sets him up to attempt a balancing act between dividing the Mount Kenya vote and consolidating his Kisii support. That task, however, is far from simple.
Among the Kisii, who have long provided him with a political foundation, the trust may begin to drift elsewhere. The likes of David Maraga and Simba Arati are increasingly being viewed as more dependable custodians of the Kisii political space. By stepping into Jubilee, Matiang’i risks losing the sense of ownership he once commanded at home.
His move will also carry a bigger perception problem. By aligning with Jubilee, Matiang’i will be seen as a project of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his close associates.
Jubilee already enjoys a foothold in President Ruto’s administration, which makes Matiang’i’s entry almost a foregone conclusion into the Broadbased Government. Whether consciously or not, he would now be representing Uhuru’s interests at the table of power.
With Kenyatta’s stake in government secure, there is little chance he will want to upset the balance. That leaves Matiang’i playing largely in Ruto’s corner, a reality that explains the frustration and anger surrounding his imminent move to Jubilee.
The political arithmetic is reshaping quickly. On one side sit Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka. On another stands Matiang’i as a possible third force. The rest of the country now waits for the hour of reckoning when these pieces fall into place.
Yet Matiang’i had other options. Perhaps the most strategic was to form a summit of smaller parties 10, 20 or even 50 that would rally behind him. Such a platform would allow him to craft an independent identity, campaign under his own banner, and later negotiate alliances from a position of strength.
He could then choose to link up with the united Opposition or strike a deal with either Raila Odinga or William Ruto, depending on where interests aligned.
By abandoning this route, Matiang’i walks into a zero sum game. His next steps will either cement him as a national player or reduce him to a regional actor boxed in by perceptions of dependency on Uhuru’s shadow. In Kenyan politics, perception is everything, and Matiang’i’s will soon be tested.
