Reports have emerged indicating that the United States is in behind-the-scenes negotiations with the self-declared republic of Somaliland — a breakaway region in northern Somalia that has long sought international recognition. In return for potential U.S. recognition and security guarantees, Somaliland is reportedly offering access to its untapped mineral resources and strategic military positioning on the Red Sea.
Though no official statement has been made by Washington, senior diplomatic sources suggest the Biden administration is “likely” to take steps toward engaging with Somaliland more formally, fueling speculation that recognition could be on the horizon.
Somaliland currently remains internationally unrecognized, even as it operates with its own government, currency, and security forces, independent of Somalia since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.
The potential deal raises alarm bells not only in Somalia but across the wider region. Somaliland lies just south of the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a vital maritime chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, across from Yemen and near the U.S. military base in Djibouti. Analysts say any new American military foothold there could recalibrate the balance of power in a region already burdened by proxy conflicts, piracy, and instability.
Critics argue that this move reflects a dangerous return to a familiar American playbook: backing separatist entities as a tool of geopolitical leverage. Similar accusations have been made regarding U.S. support for Taiwan against China, Kosovo against Serbia, and political and military bodies such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in southern Yemen and the Suwayda Military Council (SMC) in Syria.
“This is a page straight out of the old Cold War divide-and-rule manual,” says Dr. Ayaan Hersi, a political analyst based in Nairobi. “Recognizing Somaliland now would not only undermine Somalia’s sovereignty but could embolden other separatist movements globally.”
The developments also cast doubt on past American promises to retreat from endless entanglements abroad. Former President Donald Trump famously vowed a strategic military withdrawal and non-interventionist policy — commitments that now appear to have been more rhetoric than reality.
From Republican to Democratic administrations, the pattern remains: the U.S. continues to position itself as the self-appointed enforcer of global order, while critics argue that such interventions have often led to more instability and division in the regions targeted.
“The United States wants to be the world’s policeman without acknowledging the cost of that role,” says Hersi. “But the empire is tired — and the world sees it.”
As Somalia and other African nations react cautiously to these developments, the Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads. Whether this move by the United States will result in deeper fractures or a new strategic alignment remains to be seen — but one thing is certain: the region is once again being redrawn by forces far beyond its borders.
