The divisions within ODM have outgrown disagreement. What is unfolding is a generational confrontation over power, relevance, and the future direction of the party. One camp is associated with Oburu Odinga.
The other is driven by Winnie Odinga.Between these two poles sit Gen Z aligned actors and several competing interests, making the internal contest both crowded and unpredictable. What is clear, however, is that loyalty alone no longer guarantees victory on the ODM ticket.
ODM remains one of the most formidable political parties in Kenya. Its grassroots model is so effective that UDA is openly replicating it nationwide, promising hundreds of thousands of grassroots leaders.
In the long term, parties such as Jubilee, DCP, ODM, UDA, and Wiper are likely to survive. Yet survival does not translate into universal opportunity. Each party will ultimately produce only one presidential flag bearer.
The current ODM struggle forces the party to confront the meaning of its own name. The D in ODM must now be applied in its true registered sense, Democratic.
For years, critics have dismissed it as standing for dictatorship. That narrative may have survived in the past, but it cannot survive in today’s political environment.Oburu Odinga has limited options.
Accommodation is no longer a courtesy but a necessity. Figures such as Nyabungu, Chogo, the Queenpin, and Winnie Odinga must be factored into the party’s future. Winnie Odinga in particular represents a new political energy.
She will be tireless, persistent, and unapologetically confrontational where required.The Odingas of 2026 are not the Odingas of 1994.
Their financial resources are stronger, their political networks wider, and their operational capacity better suited to an open and competitive political space.If ODM is to remain relevant, it must deliberately open up and manage its internal contradictions.
Before negotiating with President Ruto or any external political force, ODM must first negotiate with itself.
Without internal consensus, external alliances will remain fragile and transactional.
