The concept of national parties in Kenya is slowly dying, and Coast, Upper-Rift and Central-Rift are among the last remaining regional definitions of what we traditionally considered national political parties. The day leaders from these regions organise themselves around shared political interests, rather than waiting to be accommodated by established political formations, will be the day we begin burying the concept of national parties as we have known them.
I dare say that even Mount Kenya, often treated as one political bloc, will eventually fracture into South-East, South-West and other distinct political interests. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It is the natural evolution of a democracy in which communities are beginning to understand that political numbers, strategic bargaining and the control of resources matter more than the romanticisation of national party identities.
Kenya is moving towards a politics of negotiation. Power will increasingly be negotiated across regions, communities, economic interests and political formations. The central question will no longer be which party has the most recognisable national colours, but who has the numbers, what they bring to the negotiating table and what guarantees they secure for their people.
This reality strengthens the argument for a parliamentary democracy. A system in which governments are formed through parliamentary majorities and sustained by negotiated agreements could encourage political actors to build coalitions around programmes, representation and shared national priorities. Every region would have an incentive to organise, negotiate and secure its place in government. No single community would need to imagine that its political destiny depends entirely on producing the President.
The precedent was visible in 2022, when Northern Kenya, particularly Somali political constituencies, organised significantly around the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and made important attempts to consolidate their bargaining power. Their experience demonstrated that a region does not necessarily need to command a national party to influence national politics. Organisation, numbers and strategic alliances can create leverage.
Coast, Upper-Rift and Central-Rift could represent the next chapter of this political transformation. Their leaders must recognise that their collective strength lies not merely in supporting established political formations, but in organising their interests, articulating their demands and negotiating from a position of unity.
The road may be less travelled, but it could ultimately become the only sustainable path towards a more inclusive political order.
Kenya must move beyond the illusion that national unity requires every community to belong to the same political party. Unity should mean fairness, inclusion and shared prosperity, not political uniformity.
A negotiated democracy could offer a fairer society, where every region has a voice, every community has a stake and national resources are distributed through transparent, accountable institutions.
The future of Kenyan politics may not belong to the biggest party, but to those who organise, negotiate and deliver for their people.
