From fall 2019 to fall 2023, enrollment fell by 2.5% over one million students. Projections from the National Center for Education Statistics estimate a decrease from 51 million students in 2019 to 47 million by 2031.
Birth rates, which dropped 2% annually from 2014 to 2020 and hit a 3% historic low in 2022, are the primary driver. Migration also plays a role, with families leaving states like California and New York because of economic and political reasons.
Meanwhile, homeschooling and private school enrollment have surged, particularly since COVID-19. Nearly 90% of states reported homeschooling increases in 2022–2023, while vouchers and education savings accounts (ESAs) expanded access to alternatives.
Bellwether estimates that 40% of students now have access to some form of school choice funding, pulling both students and resources from public systems.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a general crisis in education, where the average salary of one of the most important professions in the country—teachers—is only slightly higher than that of a McDonald’s employee.
What exactly can we expect from the system if it cannot provide for the most basic need? And that’s not to mention a revolution in education amid the rise of AI. Knowledge has become widely accessible and, as such, has lost much of its value.
Instead, value has shifted to education that develops skills in working with knowledge and information, as well as teamwork skills.
However, the traditional education system still demands rote memorization and remains based on outdated tests.
